Wartime Behavioral Economics: breaking biases

When uncertainty is overwhelming: how do we make decisions in times of war?

 

The intake for this course is not open yet. If you are interested in participation, please leave your contacts in the form and we will send you a reminder when the intake will start.

 

About course

The war has brought enormous uncertainty into our lives. It makes it much harder to make decisions, both everyday decisions (Should I go to the shelter during an alarm if a MiG has taken off somewhere?) and long-term strategic decisions (My city is being shelled periodically. Is it time to evacuate or not?). We don't have time to process the huge amount of information we receive every day, and therefore often don't know how to act in a given situation. However, we still make some decisions, not necessarily the best ones. How does this process work? 

In the course " Wartime Behavioral Economics" we will analyze this complex and unobvious way of making decisions when there are many unknowns. We will show the role of cognitive illusions and biases and explain how they help us filter, process and interpret the facts around us. We will also test the limits of our own rationality. By understanding the nature of cognitive distortions in ourselves and in our partners, we will be able to become more organized and self-aware and understand how to make better and more effective decisions.  

 

Start: TBA
Duration: 2 days x 4 hours
Location: AUK campus in Kyiv (1, Poshtova Ploscha)
Language of instruction: Ukrainian
Participation fee: $129 (paid in UAH at NBU rate)

About course
Learning outcomes
1
About the entire decision-making cycle under uncertainty

and understand why not all our decisions are optimal

2
What helps us to filter out the necessary information

and why our enemies stubbornly and openly lie about our history

3
How our mental models affect the interpretation of neutral facts

and why optimism about the end of the war is declining (and what is the role of propaganda)

4
Stereotypes: do they help or hinder?

How cats help to donate, and why we can rarely assess the rationality of other people

5
Why we have to act quickly

and what intuition really is

6
How to calibrate self-confidence

and why it is important to learn to let go of the lost past

7
How one word can dramatically change behavior

and how to learn how to build a useful conversation framework

8
Why we don't go to the shelter during air raid alert

but believe in the "second wall" effect

Course structure

Module 1
Introduction
  • What is uncertainty. 

  • The noise-signal-history-decision-memory model

Module 2
Noise and filter
  • The problem: Too much information

  • Effects of accessibility, illusory truth

  • Influence of the new and unusual

  • The effect of context

  • Effect of own experience

Module 3
Signal and interpretation
  • The problem: understanding the facts on the table

  • Searching for patterns

  • How we simplify the world

  • Do we understand how and what others think

  • How we perceive past failures and setbacks

  • What is memory and how it affects decisions

Module 4
Quick decisions and history
  • The problem: no time to think

  • The effects of knowledge and overconfidence

  • Concentration on what is near and now

  • Already paid: how to get off the dead horse

  • How words and patterns affect perception

About your instructors
Nataliia Zaika
Nataliia Zaika
Володимир Вахітов
Володимир Вахітов
Registration form

The intake for this course has not yet started, but you can secure your spot now with just a 10% deposit. Once enrollment opens, you'll only need to pay 75% of the remaining course fee, instead of the full 90%!

* Please note, the deposit is non-refundable if you choose not to enroll in the course. However, if AUK cancels the course, the deposit can be fully refunded or transferred to another course upon request.