When uncertainty is overwhelming: how do we make decisions in times of war?


The war has brought enormous uncertainty into our lives. It makes it much harder to make decisions, both everyday decisions (Should I go to the shelter during an alarm if a MiG has taken off somewhere?) and long-term strategic decisions (My city is being shelled periodically. Is it time to evacuate or not?). We don't have time to process the huge amount of information we receive every day, and therefore often don't know how to act in a given situation. However, we still make some decisions, not necessarily the best ones. How does this process work? 

 

In the course " Wartime Behavioral Economics" we will analyze this complex and unobvious way of making decisions when there are many unknowns. We will show the role of cognitive illusions and biases and explain how they help us filter, process and interpret the facts around us. We will also test the limits of our own rationality. By understanding the nature of cognitive distortions in ourselves and in our partners, we will be able to become more organized and self-aware and understand how to make better and more effective decisions.  

 

Start date: April 27, 2024
Duration: 2 modules x 4 hours each
Format: Offline sessions with teachers on the AUK campus
Language: Ukrainian
Cost: $190 $171 if paid by March 31

Registration form
Learning outcomes
1
Understand the real decision-making processes

at play during conditions of uncertainty

2
Analyze the influence of emotions

social norms, and "unimportant" external factors on the end result

3
Unpack the difficulty of making choices

when everything seems so simple

4
Learn how you can change

someone else's behavior with just one word

5
Irrationality

Discover whether it can be predicted

6
Identify and avoid "mental traps"

and cognitive biases to better understand the behavior of your colleagues, friends, and enemies

7
Understand why people voluntarily go to the frontline

or do not leave cities that are constantly shelled.

8
Reduce the influence of misinformation and propaganda

on decision-making and emotional state, and avoid being swayed by extreme sweeping statements; from "all is lost" to "tomorrow we will win”

This course is designed for:
  • HR Managers & Department heads who want to understand the reasons for changing behavior and motivation of their teams
  • Marketing, Researchers & Consumer insights managers who aim to capture rapidly changing consumers' needs & wants
  • Business owners, Sales & Business development managers who want to master the decision-making process and find new strategies through difficulties or crises
  • Driven individuals & proactive organizers who want to make plans and decisions rationally and equip themselves with the skills necessary to process variables from all angles
This course is designed for:
About your instructors
About your instructors

Volodymyr Vakhitov

Director of the Behavioral Science Institute and Associate Professor at American University Kyiv.

With a Master of Economic Theory from the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Kentucky, and over 15 years of employment with the Kyiv School of Economics, Dr. Vakhitov has acquired versatile experience in Applied Econometrics, Urban and Regional Economics, Productivity Analysis and Behavioral Economics. Over the last ten years, the latter has become his main theme and passion. Dr. Vakhitov has taught courses at MA and MBA levels in Ukraine and internationally, held multiple training programs for Ukrainian businesses (DTEK, SCM, Raiffeisen Bank, PUMB, Sevier, Softserve, just to mention a few) and international organizations (UNDP, USAID), and authored dozens of articles and interviews in the local media as well as articles in international scientific journals. After the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Dr. Vakhitov has actively applied his knowledge of behavioral economics to such topics as overcoming the hesitance of civilians to evacuate from war zones, increasing the efficiency of charitable contributions, and overcoming the consequences of PTSD. Also, Dr. Vakhitov runs the only Ukrainian-language blog about behavioral economics, BeSmart.

Nataliia Zaika

Program Manager at Behavioral Science Institute at American University Kyiv

She works on projects that study behavior and decision-making in different situations to suggest better, behaviorally sound policies. For example, why people (do not) vaccinate against COVID-19 or polio? Why people (do not) evacuate from dangerous zones during the Russian-Ukrainian war? What affects larger charitable donations? She also studies how communications influence behavior. For example, can we develop proper messages to encourage more socially acceptable and less risky behavior? Nataliia also conducts training for NGOs, businesses, and students on behavioral economics, critical thinking, storytelling with data, soft skills, and career development.

Program structure
1
1. Introduction. What is "rational behavior"?

1.1. What a rational choice should look like

1.2. What information is available to us

1.3. What helps us to make a choice when there is not enough information

2
2. Probable vs. improbable

2.1. How we perceive simple probabilities

2.2. How a minor additional factor makes it difficult to understand the odds

2.3. How the risk perception affects decisions

2.4. How we avoid uncertainty

3
3. Prospects and losses

3.1. How does a thinking pattern affect a change in preferences?

3.2. Why do the same people play the lottery and buy insurance?

3.3. What do we lose when we choose something else?

3.4. Why don't we like to lose?

4
4. Mental losses and gains under the conditions of war

4.1. How to preserve the psyche and continue to work against the background of real and expected losses?

4.2. How do mental accounts allow you to redistribute money more efficiently?

4.3. How to submit charity projects?

4.4. The strength of the default values. Why do we always have to simplify?

4.5. How to encourage the development of habits?

5
5. Choice under conditions of uncertainty

5.1. If there was a strike today, will there be a strike tomorrow?

5.2. Would the robot be able to recognize the enemy's sabotage and reconnaissance group?

5.3. Is it possible to convince the "vatnik"?

5.4. How effective are celebrities in collecting donations?

5.5. Where do you hang the additional protection on a military aircraft?

6
6. The role of emotions

6.1. Emotions of events and emotions of expectations.

6.2. The idea of an identified victim in fundraising and in propaganda.

6.3. Emotional swing.

6.4. The role of emotional intelligence for volunteers, those who work with people, and civil servants. The role of trauma and post-traumatic syndrome in a post-war society, and how we can deal with it.

7
7. Motivation: what makes us do what we do?

7.1. Ways of non-monetary motivation: the difference between physical and intellectual work

7.2. Effects of trust, simplicity, monetary stress (penalties vs. bonuses), IKEA effect, shared experience effect

7.3. How to force yourself to work effectively during the war?

8
8. The importance of social norms

8.1. How does the environment affect us? Is a human really a "social animal"?

8.2. How important is it to follow the peacetime social norms during wartime?

8.3. Feeling of social responsibility and group dynamics.

8.4. Do standard wartime experiments (ultimatum, dictator, common cause games) work?

Behavioral Economics During Wartime: Breaking Biases
  • Start: April 27, 2024
  • Cost: $190   $171 
  • Location: AUK campus in Kyiv
  • AUK Certifiacate
TO ENROLL FILL IN THE FORM AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE AND PROCEED WITH PAYMENT
Still have questions
Frequently asked questions
What is the language of instruction for this course?

The course is fully delivered in Ukrainian. All learning materials, including reading and video, are in Ukrainian too. Your individual and group assignments are expected to be prepared in Ukrainian as well.

Are there any prerequisites for this course?

This course is aimed at a wide audience and does not require any special prerequisites. Still, some working experience would help you to better understand some of the concepts.

How much time will I have to spend learning while taking this course?

This course includes 90-minute live sessions with instructors twice per week in the evenings. Self-study may include reading materials or videos. You will also be receiving some homework, which may include individual and group assignments. The estimated time dedication for this course is 6-10 hours per week, but this largely depends on you.

What qualification will I earn?

Upon successful completion of this course, you will be awarded a certificate accredited by American University Kyiv

Will my ECTs be transferable to undergraduate or post-graduate programs?

No, credits earned from this course are not transferrable and may not count toward Master’s or Bachelor’s programs should you decide to pursue this path of study.

How can I pay?

Payments may be made online via our website, or you may request an invoice from our accounting department. American University Kyiv does not accept cash payments.

Can I get the scholarship?

American University Kyiv offers wartime scholarships to all Ukrainian citizens who enroll in AUK programs. This course, in particular, has a 50% scholarship which is currently reflected in the course cost.

Can my company pay for me?

If your employer agrees to pay for your study, you may inquire about the proforma invoice from our accounting department.

What if I fail?

If you do not meet the course completion requirements, you will not be entitled to receive a certificate of completion. This course will be offered on a repeated basis, and you may enroll one more time.

What if I miss the live session with the instructor or guest speaker?

All live sessions will be recorded, so you may watch them later via a shared link.

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