AUK invites you to the Research Seminar with Dariia Mykhailyshyna, PhD candidate in Economics at the University of Bologna (Italy), specializing in applied microeconomics, political economy and economics of migration. She is also a Senior Economist at Centre for Economic Strategy / CES, working on migration and human capital.

Seminar topic: " Migrant types and political outcomes: Evidence from Ukrainian migration to Poland".

Europe has experienced massive waves of migration over the past decade. These movements have coincided with political changes in several European countries. During the seminar, we will examine the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians, resulting from Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, on voting behavior in Poland.

The unique nature of the two shocks allows us to distinguish between the effects of two different types of immigration: a conflict-induced labor migration and a refugee inflow. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find heterogeneous effects of the two immigration shocks. We find that greater exposure to labor migration reduces voter preferences for conservative parties in the short run, and subsequently shifts voter support to pro-redistribution parties.

Counties more exposed to both types of Ukrainian migration experience a decline in far-right voting, but this effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases amid the escalation of Russia's aggression and the subsequent rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right.

Date: May 6
Time: 18:00 Kyiv time

✅Registration is at the link: https://forms.office.com/e/cehQZSrMDQ?origin=lprLink

All registered participants will receive a link to the event.

See you soon!